grey model
Yes, DLGM! A novel hierarchical model for hazard classification
Wang, Zhenhua, Ren, Ming, Gao, Dong, Wang, Bin
Hazards can be exposed by HAZOP as text information, and studying their classification is of great significance to the development of industrial informatics, which is conducive to safety early warning, decision support, policy evaluation, etc. However, there is no research on this important field at present. In this paper, we propose a novel model termed DLGM via deep learning for hazard classification. Specifically, first, we leverage BERT to vectorize the hazard and treat it as a type of time series (HTS). Secondly, we build a grey model FSGM(1, 1) to model it, and get the grey guidance in the sense of the structural parameters. Finally, we design a hierarchical-feature fusion neural network (HFFNN) to investigate the HTS with grey guidance (HTSGG) from three themes, where, HFFNN is a hierarchical structure with four types of modules: two feature encoders, a gating mechanism, and a deepening mechanism. We take 18 industrial processes as application cases and launch a series of experiments. The experimental results prove that DLGM has promising aptitudes for hazard classification and that FSGM(1, 1) and HFFNN are effective. We hope our research can contribute added value and support to the daily practice in industrial safety.
A Survey on Semi-parametric Machine Learning Technique for Time Series Forecasting
Ahmad, Khwaja Mutahir, He, Gang, Yu, Wenxin, Xu, Xiaochuan, Kumar, Jay, Saleem, Muhammad Asim
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has recently shown its capabilities for almost every field of life. Machine Learning, which is a subset of AI, is a `HOT' topic for researchers. Machine Learning outperforms other classical forecasting techniques in almost all-natural applications. It is a crucial part of modern research. As per this statement, Modern Machine Learning algorithms are hungry for big data. Due to the small datasets, the researchers may not prefer to use Machine Learning algorithms. To tackle this issue, the main purpose of this survey is to illustrate, demonstrate related studies for significance of a semi-parametric Machine Learning framework called Grey Machine Learning (GML). This kind of framework is capable of handling large datasets as well as small datasets for time series forecasting likely outcomes. This survey presents a comprehensive overview of the existing semi-parametric machine learning techniques for time series forecasting. In this paper, a primer survey on the GML framework is provided for researchers. To allow an in-depth understanding for the readers, a brief description of Machine Learning, as well as various forms of conventional grey forecasting models are discussed. Moreover, a brief description on the importance of GML framework is presented.
Improved Grey System Models for Predicting Traffic Parameters
Comert, Gurcan, Begashaw, Negash, Huynh, Nathan
In transportation applications such as real-time route guidance, ramp metering, congestion pricing and special events traffic management, accurate short-term traffic flow prediction is needed. For this purpose, this paper proposes several novel \textit{online} Grey system models (GM): GM(1,1$|cos(\omega t)$), GM(1,1$|sin(\omega t)$, $cos(\omega t)$), and GM(1,1$|e^{-at}$,$sin(\omega t)$,$cos(\omega t)$). To evaluate the performance of the proposed models, they are compared against a set of benchmark models: GM(1,1) model, Grey Verhulst models with and without Fourier error corrections, linear time series model, and nonlinear time series model. The evaluation is performed using loop detector and probe vehicle data from California, Virginia, and Oregon. Among the benchmark models, the error corrected Grey Verhulst model with Fourier outperformed the GM(1,1) model, linear time series, and non-linear time series models. In turn, the three proposed models, GM(1,1$|cos(\omega t)$), GM(1,1$|sin(\omega t)$,$cos(\omega t)$), and GM(1,1$|e^{-at}$,$sin(\omega t)$,$cos(\omega t)$), outperformed the Grey Verhulst model in prediction by at least $65\%$, $16\%$, and $11\%$, in terms of Root Mean Squared Error, and by $82\%$, $58\%$, and $42\%$, in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error, respectively. It is observed that the proposed Grey system models are more adaptive to location (e.g., perform well for all roadway types) and traffic parameters (e.g., speed, travel time, occupancy, and volume), and they do not require as many data points for training (4 observations are found to be sufficient).
Grey Models for Short-Term Queue Length Predictions for Adaptive Traffic Signal Control
Comert, Gurcan, Khan, Zadid, Rahman, Mizanur, Chowdhury, Mashrur
Adaptive signal control system (ASCS) is the most advanced t raffic signal technology that regulates the signal phasing and timings considering the traffic patterns in real-time in order to reduce traffic congestion. Real-time prediction of traffic queue length can be used to adj ust the signal phasing and timings for different traffic movements at a signalized intersection with A SCS. The accuracy of the queue length prediction model varies based on the many factors, such as th e stochastic nature of the vehicle arrival rates at an intersection, time of the day, weather and driver characteristics. In addition, accurate queue length prediction for multilane, undersaturated and satur ated traffic scenarios at signalized intersections is challenging. Thus, the objective of this study is to devel op short-term queue length prediction models for signalized intersections that can be leveraged by adapt ive traffic signal control systems using four variations of Grey systems: (i) the first order single variab le Grey model (GM(1,1)); (ii) GM(1,1) with Fourier error corrections (EGM); (iii) the Grey Verhulst mo del (GVM), and (iv) GVM with Fourier error corrections (EGVM). The efficacy of the Grey models is th at they facilitate fast processing; as these models do not require a large amount of data; as would be needed in artificial intelligence models; and they are able to adapt to stochastic changes, unlike stat istical models. We have conducted a case study using queue length data from five intersections with ad aptive traffic signal control on a calibrated roadway network in Lexington, South Carolina. Grey models w ere compared with linear, nonlinear time series models, and long short-term memory (LSTM) neura l network. Based on our analyses, we found that EGVM reduces the prediction error over closest co mpeting models (i.e., LSTM and Additive Autoregressive (AAR) time series models) in predicting ave rage and maximum queue lengths by 40% and 42%, respectively, in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (R MSE), and 51% and 50%, respectively, in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE).
A brief introduction to the Grey Machine Learning
This paper presents a brief introduction to the key points of the Grey Machine Learning (GML) based on the kernels. The general formulation of the grey system models have been firstly summarized, and then the nonlinear extension of the grey models have been developed also with general formulations. The kernel implicit mapping is used to estimate the nonlinear function of the GML model, by extending the nonparametric formulation of the LSSVM, the estimation of the nonlinear function of the GML model can also be expressed by the kernels. A short discussion on the priority of this new framework to the existing grey models and LSSVM have also been discussed in this paper. And the perspectives and future orientations of this framework have also been presented.